Let's Flatten the Curve


Let’s Flatten the Curve


The Covid-19 illness caused by the novel coronavirus has introduced many words and phrases in the routine conversations. Flatten the Curve is one of them. The medical experts on TV networks are telling us that one of the essential components of the war against coronavirus is to "Flatten the Curve".

The concept has been described many times in the media but for some who may have missed it, let me explain:

If the case numbers of the Covid-19 illness are plotted on the graph paper, it will have a bell-shaped curve. There will be a beginning, a peak, and then it will bottom out.  

If the virus affects a lot of people at the same time, the peak of the curve will be very slim and tall, and the base will be narrow. So, if one thousand people get sick over one week, it will yield a curve with small base and a tall peak. (see the diagram)

If one were to look at a flat curve, it’s top will be rounded and will look like a rainbow arc. In a flattened-out curve, the same number of people will get sick, but over a longer period of time. So, if the same number of people (1000 persons) get sick over a period of four weeks, the curve will have longer base and shorter height. (see the diagram).

So, by flatting the curve, we are not reducing the number of people who are sick, but we are spreading them out over 4 weeks rather than one week. By doing so, the healthcare system can manage them better. The intensive care units will not be overwhelmed all at once. Everyone who needs to be admitted to intensive care unit, will get a bed and will get treated.

Hence, “Flattening the Curve “ is an important public health intervention to deal with the epidemic. We, the citizens can help to flatten the curve by taken every precaution possible to prevent ourselves and others getting infected. By flattening the curve, the epidemic will last somewhat longer but most if not all will survive, because we will be able to take care of every sick person and not overwhelm our current healthcare resources.  


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